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20240717 - correct for test bias
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isaactpetersen committed Jul 18, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -5140,6 +5140,8 @@ Cross-validation will help reduce the likelihood that your model is fitting to n
Update your judgments based on their accuracy, rather than trying to confirm your beliefs [@Atanasov2020].\index{prediction!improving accuracy of}
- In addition to considering the accuracy of the prediction, consider the quality of the prediction *process*, especially when random chance is involved to a degree (such as in poker) [@Silver2012].\index{prediction!improving accuracy of}
- Work to identify and mitigate potential blindspots; be aware of cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias and [base rate](#baseRate) neglect.\index{prediction!improving accuracy of}\index{bias!cognitive}\index{base rate!neglect}\index{bias!confirmatory}
- Evaluate for the possibility of [bias](#bias) in the predictions or in the tests from which the predictions are derived.\index{bias}
Correct for any [test bias](#bias).\index{bias}

## Conclusion {#conclusion-prediction}

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