Near-term vetting: Wind

[RahelMA]

Variable: Capacity|Electricity|Wind

Source: GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2024

• regional data
• GWEC industry perspective for expected installations of new capacity for the next five
  years (2023:2028). The outlook is based on input from regional wind associations, government targets, tender results, announced
  auction plans, available project pipeline, and input from industry experts and GWEC members.

Assumptions + data preparation:

• fast expanding technology: new power plants can be ramped up rather quickly, allowing for more flexibility on maximum values
• regional definition varies among models, therefore more generous bounds and no red bounds for 2025 and 2030
• historical values reflect less uncertainty

Threshold definitions:

Threshold definitions proposal:
2020

• historical value, source EMBER
• global min_red: -10% ; regional min_red: -40%
• global min_yel: -5% ; regional min_yel: -20%
• global max_yel: +5% ; regional max_yel: +20%
• global max_red: +10% ; regional max_red: +40%

2025
EMBER capacity for 2022 and GWEC capacity addition for 2023:2025

• global min_red: -10% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 0.375)
• global min_yel: -5% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 0.75) ; regional min_yel: -40% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 0.375)
• global max_yel: +5% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 1.5) ; regional max_yel: +40% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 2)
• global max_red: +10% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:25 * 2)

2030
Ember capacity for 2022 and BNEF capacity addition for 2023:2028, for 2029:2030CapAdd continued with average of last 5 years

• global min_red: -10% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 0.375)
• global min_yel: -5% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 0.75) ; regional min_yel: -40% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 0.375)
• global max_yel: +5% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 1.5) ; regional max_yel: +40% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 2)
• global max_red: +10% (EMBER2022+ CapAdd23:30 * 2)

Data Source:
GWEC: https://gwec.net/global-wind-report-2024/ (2024-04-24)
GWR-2024_digital-version_final-2_reduced.pdf

EMBER: https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/ (2024-04-06)