Near-term vetting: Solar

[RahelMA]

Variable: Capacity|Electricity|Solar

Source: BloombergNEF

• regional data
• BNEF's mid forecast including unknown buffer

Assumptions + data preparation:

• fast expanding technology: new power plants can be ramped up quickly, allowing for more flexibility on maximum values
• regional definition varies among models, therefore more generous bounds and no red bounds for 2025 and 2030
• historical values reflect less uncertainty

Threshold definitions:

Threshold definitions proposal:
2020

• historical value, source EMBER
• global min_red: -10% ; regional min_red: -40%
• global min_yel: -5% ; regional min_yel: -20%
• global max_yel: +5% ; regional max_yel: +20%
• global max_red: +10% ; regional max_red: +40%

2025
EMBER capacity for 2023 and BNEF capacity addition for 2024:2025

• global min_red: -10% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 * 0.375)
• global min_yel: -5% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 * 0.75) ; regional min_yel: -40% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 * 0.375)
• global max_yel: +5% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 * 1.5) ; regional max_yel: +40% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 * 2)
• global max_red: +10% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:25 (incl. buffer) * 2)

2030
Ember capacity for 2023 and BNEF capacity addition for 2024:2030

• global min_red: -10% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 * 0.375)
• global min_yel: -5% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 * 0.75) ; regional min_yel: -40% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 * 0.375)
• global max_yel: +5% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 * 1.5) ; regional max_yel: +40% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 * 2)
• global max_red: +10% (EMBER2023+ CapAdd24:30 (incl. buffer) * 2)

Data Source:
BNEF: https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2024-global-pv-market-outlook/ (2024-08-27)
EMBER: https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/ (2024-04-06)