Near-term vetting: Hydro

[pweigmann]

Variable: Capacity|Electricity|Hydro

Source: IEA-HSMR

• country data
• available data:
  • "operational": currently operational capacities
  • "expected": most likely scenario for 2030 capacities
  • "accelerated": scenario with accelerated capacity growth until 2030

Assumptions + data preparation:

• slow technology: potential new power plants that are not yet under construction won't be operational in 2030
• all power plants under construction will be finished in 2030 (only max thresholds)
• no decommissioning
• min thresholds without pumped storage, max thresholds with pumped storage as different models might include or exclude it in their reporting

Threshold definitions:

2020

• global min_red: -10% ("operational") ; regional min_red: -40% ("operational")
• global min_yel: -5% ("operational") ; regional min_yel: -20% ("operational")
• global max_yel: +5% ("operational" + "pumped storage") ; regional max_yel: +20% ("operational" + "pumped storage")
• global max_red: +10% ("operational" + "pumped storage") ; regional max_red: +40% ("operational" + "pumped storage")

2030

• global min_red: -10% ("operational")
• global min_yel: -5% ("expected") ; regional min_yel: -40% ("operational")
• global max_yel: +5% ("accelerated" + "pumped storage") ; regional max_yel: +40% ("accelerated" * 1.3 + "pumped storage")
• global max_red: +10% ("accelerated" * 1.3 + "pumped storage")

Data Source:
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/hydropower-data-explorer

[EHooijschuur]

The data that I received a while ago, has a remarkable drop in 2023. Do we know where that comes from? Maybe data from a specific country is not available that year?

Additionally, there are a few sources that show lower historical capacities: IRENA, WRI, Ember, Platts. Is there a specific reason you chose to use IEA? Maybe, for a lower boundary, it would make sense to choose sources that show lower capacities, or choose a higher uncertainty range because numbers differ.

[pweigmann]

In general, we chose IEA for its near-term outlook, offering an "expected" and "accelerated" scenario for hydro capacities.

I am not certain, which data it is that contains the drop in 2023 - in this case we use 2020 as a historical comparison year and then add thresholds also for 2030. Regarding the 2020 data, I found the following global capacities:

• IEA: 1168 GW + 160 GW pumped storage
• EMBER: 1213 GW
• IRENA: 1156 GW

I didn't find the numbers for WRI and Platts in my quick search, but generally I think the IEA shouldn't be too far off. Maybe I am looking at different numbers than you?