From 885dd23d8a7b8d4983f68dbf8b092130e65eb57c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "Isaac T. Petersen" Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2024 21:42:57 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] 20240717 - correct for test bias --- 10-Prediction.Rmd | 2 ++ 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+) diff --git a/10-Prediction.Rmd b/10-Prediction.Rmd index 4c0f1afd..ee5f243a 100644 --- a/10-Prediction.Rmd +++ b/10-Prediction.Rmd @@ -5138,6 +5138,8 @@ Cross-validation will help reduce the likelihood that your model is fitting to n Update your judgments based on their accuracy, rather than trying to confirm your beliefs [@Atanasov2020].\index{prediction!improving accuracy of} - In addition to considering the accuracy of the prediction, consider the quality of the prediction *process*, especially when random chance is involved to a degree (such as in poker) [@Silver2012].\index{prediction!improving accuracy of} - Work to identify and mitigate potential blindspots; be aware of cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias and [base rate](#baseRate) neglect.\index{prediction!improving accuracy of}\index{bias!cognitive}\index{base rate!neglect}\index{bias!confirmatory} +- Evaluate for the possibility of [bias](#bias) in the predictions or in the tests from which the predictions are derived.\index{bias} +Correct for any [test bias](#bias).\index{bias} ## Conclusion {#conclusion-prediction}